A World View – Page 6 – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

This Intelligence Briefing is our twice monthly publication in which Rodenberg Tillman & Associates identifies and discusses worldly events triggered by possible Gray & Black Swans and/or Gray Rhinos.

All too often we tell management what they want to hear

May 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

An important issue in HBR in March/April 2017, dealt with information that challenges your assumptions and allows you to perceive a looming threat or opportunity. When a dramatic shift is on the horizon, the first indications may usually appear in ambiguous events on the fringes of the market. A key problem is getting information that senior management have not demanded because they do not know how to ask for it. Often, this may be a development brewing that may ultimately redraw the lines of competition for the future. One way to describe the unanticipated risks became famous in 2002 as ‘unknown unknowns’, thanks to Donald Rumsfeld, the former US Secretary of Defense.

Why so many people get it wrong in strategic planning

May 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The statements above come from McKinsey in March 2017 writing about strategic planning. How come? People are overly confident and optimistic, and informed people are even more confident (1). No one was ever promoted for putting forward a plan whose growth forecasts didn’t sail upwards? (2). Executives constantly tell themselves that they need an ambitious vision to inspire great performance (3). But when the strategy outcome is not realized after the first year, attribution bias usually kicks in: one simply blames the circumstances or others, but never oneself.

Governments are corrupt to the bone

April 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Dr. Arthur Laffer is known for his famous ‘Laffer Curve’. He was a member of President Reagan’s Economic Policy Board and an advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. In January 2017, he visited the Netherlands and made statements to the effect that “governments are corrupt to the bone”, and the EU is “a state-run organization where the people don’t have a vote”. Arthur Laffer is correct, but what is of crucial concern is the non-critical attitude of the media and journalists.

Company mortality rates are rising

April 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

It is interesting to analyze the research of Professor Vijay Govindarajan published in Harvard Business Review in 12/2016, which deals with some 29,700 companies listed on US stock markets. Companies listed before 1970 had a 92% chance of surviving for the next five years. However, those companies listed from 2000 to 2010 had only a 63% chance, despite the dotcom bust and the Great Recession.

The credibility and reliability of information

March 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Increasingly, ‘experts’ limit themselves by just giving their opinion. We saw this happening when CNN broadcast their opinion about Trump and his connections with Russia two hours before the press conference at 5 pm on Wednesday 11th January, 2017. CNN’s ‘breaking news’ resulted in complete chaos.

The Blue-Ribbon List

March 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In December 2016, Fortune Magazine published a ‘Blue-Ribbon List’ of some 34 companies, based on a combination of seven ratings from Fortune 500, Global 500, Best Companies to Work For, Change the World List, World’s Most Admired Companies, 100 Fastest-Growing Companies and Business Person of the Year.

The Strategic Five

February 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In our strategic intelligence practices, we see many misunderstandings about strategy. Firstly, many of us see strategy as ‘strategy concepts’ such as SWOT-analysis, Five Forces, Value-Chain Strategy, Scenario Planning, Customer Loyalty, Core Competencies, Blue Ocean Strategy and others, many of which have largely faded after enjoying a few years of attention and acclaim. Secondly, strategy concepts too often conflate goals with ideas: they try to maximize speed, increase quality, maximize net promotor score, or expand growth horizons.

Geopolitical tensions and strategic intelligence

February 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The world did not face many geopolitical tensions during the period from 1998 to 2008. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, we saw Pax Americana at its peak together with the Great Moderation: we experienced low inflation, low interest rates, stable economic growth, low rates of unemployment and the rise of the BRIC-countries.

The Intellectual Yet Idiot

January 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

It is fascinating to read these quotes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the bestselling “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile”. Taleb is speaking about the IYI, the Intellectual Yet Idiot, a product of modernity which has been accelerating since the mid-20th century, to reach its local maximum today, along with the broad category of people without skin in the game who have been invading many walks of life.

Deutsche Bank and more debt

January 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We estimate the amount of debt in the financial world to exceed the amount of global debt of US$ 152 trillion (company, consumer and government debt) by far. In business one makes strategic and business plans as result of one’s scenario plans, strategic war-mapping efforts and Grey Swan analyses with the aim of getting to the future first. However, the levels of volatility and uncertainty in 2016-2018 are extremely high, and force us to try and create maximum agility in our companies. Europe will face two large Grey Swans: the first is financial, and the second political; they might, in addition, reinforce one another.