JEFF BEZOS – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

The best decisions are analysis-based

Most management models lead unnecessary and enormous cost increases with a large chance of hugely disastrous decisions, because top managers are hardly ever corrected, according to Gary Hamel. We need decisions based on responsibility and not on company position. CEOs and boards of management show ‘Sun-King’ behavior with too much distance from the shop-floor, leading to wrong strategic decisions.

There are more postdictors than predictors

September 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

As a result of hindsight, people who did not see an event coming, (think for example of Black or Grey Swans), will manage to convince themselves that they predicted it, before proceeding to convince others. According to Taleb, after every event there will be many more postdictors than true predictors. Think about this statement: “Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast or recommendation. Just ask them what they have or don’t have in their portfolio”.