Grey Swan Analysis
We have listed twelve Grey Swans which we see as, some of, the driving forces which will weaken the economic climate across Europe.
We have listed twelve Grey Swans which we see as, some of, the driving forces which will weaken the economic climate across Europe.
Do we really believe the truth when we hear it, even if it is not what we want to hear? That is strategic intelligence at its core: critical thinking, perspectives over and above facts, challenging assumptions, and determining the course of future action. On one occasion, I was presenting to one of the leading business groups in the Netherlands, and at the end, the CEO of a top-25 listed company asked us what kind of differentiating tools we use to determine the possible courses of future actions.
Trust in society is under huge pressure. We can see some extremely negative developments which are out of the control of our politicians, who unfortunately do not have the courage to take the necessary tough decisions.
In April 2014, many TV and radio broadcasts and publications in the media informed us that Greece had recovered. We must admit that the elite of the EU, IMF and ECB put considerable effort in the media to mislead European citizens that the Greek economy was improving. Why do they take Greece as example?
In the previous post “Companies compete in arenas, not in sectors of industry” we explained how crucial it is to go beyond an industry analysis towards analyses of arenas. This means it is no longer enough to look at the industry sector in which your company competes. A further step Is required, namely conducting an analysis of the ‘competitive arena’.