It’s not about predicting the future, but to make it possible to imagine multiple futures in creative ways that heighten our ability to sense, to shape and to adapt to what happens in the years ahead of us. Farsightedness or Strategic Foresight is not what to think about the future, however, to figure out how to think about it.
Since the 1980s-1990s we have seen not that many new tools & techniques within the area of strategy and competitive intelligence. Research of SCIP during the last couple of decades confirms this. We still speak of Porter’s Five Forces, Where-to-Play & How-to-Win, Strategic Sweet Spot Analysis, Strategy under Uncertainty, Porter’s Four Corners Analysis, Extrapolation, Key Success Factor Analysis, Scenario Planning & Analysis and SWOTI. Most managers, professionals and leaders are familiar with these tools and techniques.In this article I argue for a totally new way of looking at strategic planning & competitive intelligence. And how I was able to implement this at our company.
The advances in technology, the upcoming of A.I. learning, the understanding of our environment are all progressing logarithmic, including the way we do business today. Understanding how we are all connected in this world and how we are influenced accordingly is crucial. Using new methods and techniques will help you to stay ahead. In this Special Intelligence Briefing I like to take the opportunity to give you in-depth background on “Predictive Foresights” and show recent case examples. Did you know that the academic research on our “Predictive Foresights” services goes back more than 80 years?
On the 22nd of May 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz made the first real-world transaction using Bitcoin paying for two pizzas in Jacksonville, Florida, United States. His bill at the time; 10,000 BTC. In current day value of Bitcoin this would have cost him nearly $54,762,500.- (as of the 24th of April 2019). A healthier option might have been, to make himself a sandwich.
Before we go to the core of this Predictive Foresights Intelligence Briefing, we need to go back a few years, to the 1950’s to be precise. The time that the world had largely recovered from World War II, was in the midst of the Cold War. J. Edgar Hoover being through half of his career at the FBI. Capitalism and communism challenging each other in every possible way and the advent of the Space Race, starting with the successful launch of Sputnik 1 by the Soviet Union on the 4th of October 1957.
Strategic Invention Points, SIPs, are an creation of former CEO and Founder of Intel’s Andrew Grove. SIPs are not always easy to spot, but you can’t hide from them. Intel’s first SIP was when the Japanese started producing better-quality, low-cost memory chips. It took Intel three years and huge losses to recognize, to rethink and to reposition the company to become, once again, leader in its field.
Intelligence agencies around the world are busy, 24/7, to get the best insights and foresights with the aim to avoid surprises which might have impact on countries and their citizens. Well-known examples are French DCRI, US-based CIA and NSA, Russian FSB (formerly KGB), British MI5 and MI6 and more. Since 1985 our firm is active in establishing strategic intelligence in international companies around the globe. In our Master Class we train managers, professionals and business leaders how to apply strategic intelligence within their organizations.
In our daily strategic intelligence practices, we regularly list several Key Predictive Indicators (KPIs) to see what the near future might tell us. This is not forecasting. It is, however, based on delivering perspectives going beyond the brutal facts, by creating crucial foresight and early warning. Our governments, banks, the European Commission, national forecast institutes and our uncritical media tell us that we can expect economic growth. We don’t believe this! Our early warning analyses indicate the opposite.