EU – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

President Macron and the EU

July 1, 2017

The French writer Charles Maurras (1868-1952) believed there were ‘Two Frances’: one was the ‘real’ France, and the other the ‘legal’ France. The ‘real country’ is the rural France of church clocks, traditions and native people fused with their ancestral soil, versus the ‘legal country’ which is the secular republic run by functionaries conspiring for foreign interests. When sufficient people in the country come to understand the failure of ‘legal’ France, they will want the ‘real’ France back. That will be true in countries all over Europe. As Marine Le Pen stated: “France will be led by a woman, either me or Mrs. Merkel”

Grey Swan Analysis

December 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We have listed twelve Grey Swans which we see as, some of, the driving forces which will weaken the economic climate across Europe.

Brexit

September 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The 23rd June, 2016, is a historic date in the development of the EU: it is the day on which the British voted for Brexit. Our politicians still believe that all good things in the world come as a result of their actions. However, the economic reality is that our success in trade depends far more on fundamental factors such as ‘comparative advantage’, and whether we design and make things that others want to buy, than on politician’s bureaucratic schemes.

The EU is in slow-motion, but what about Silicon Wadi?

July 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

This statement demonstrates a potential problem. One example is that of the European Central Bank (ECB), with their new headquarters in Frankfurt, financed with even more debt in a financial world led by overconfidence and exuberance. The eurozone has been in a slow-motion crisis for some 7-8 and no one seems to be in charge: neither Draghi, Merkel, Tusk, Juncker or anyone else. The ECB doesn’t stand for anything but improvisation.

Trust never returns

December 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Trust in society is under huge pressure. We can see some extremely negative developments which are out of the control of our politicians, who unfortunately do not have the courage to take the necessary tough decisions.

The agile company

November 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Strategic intelligence enables top management to foresee the opportunities and threats in a timely fashion. At the end of the day who is accountable? Being agile as a company depends on developing two key capabilities: responsiveness and organizational flexibility. Many of us see new business opportunities. However, most of us are concerned that our companies lack the skills needed to meet future competitive threats.

The ventriloquists of the elite from the EU, IMF and ECB

April 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In April 2014, many TV and radio broadcasts and publications in the media informed us that Greece had recovered. We must admit that the elite of the EU, IMF and ECB put considerable effort in the media to mislead European citizens that the Greek economy was improving. Why do they take Greece as example?

The EU has a supra-national structure

March 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Dutch multinationals are facing strong competitors from outside the EU, who are confronted less with the difficult market circumstances prevailing in Europe. According to research by the Dutch Financial Times FD, this concerns multinationals such as AkzoNobel, Aegon, DSM, Wolters Kluwer, KPN, Heineken and Shell. Philips and Ahold are stuck in the middle, and Reed Elsevier and Randstad are the only outperformers.

The leverage ratio of banks is far too low

January 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We have reported on the continuous threats to banks, and have identified that these are not Black, but Grey Swans. Black swans are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events of massive consequence for which we hardly can prepare ourselves. Grey Swans, on the other hand, are events which have a very high impact, but one for which organizations are able to prepare themselves. Banking is such a huge Grey Swan. Why is this?

Banks: misplaced, misleading, and mistaken false arrogance

November 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In November 2013, Professor Admati was in Amsterdam presenting her book “The Bankers’ New Clothes” and speaking about the false lobby of the Dutch National Employer’s Organization VNO-NCW on Dutch banks. The professor sees herself as “a voice in the wilderness” because banks in the Netherlands and Europe want to keep to the 3% requirement of equity on total assets.