ECB – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

Deutsche Bank and more debt

January 1, 2017

We estimate the amount of debt in the financial world to exceed the amount of global debt of US$ 152 trillion (company, consumer and government debt) by far. In business one makes strategic and business plans as result of one’s scenario plans, strategic war-mapping efforts and Grey Swan analyses with the aim of getting to the future first. However, the levels of volatility and uncertainty in 2016-2018 are extremely high, and force us to try and create maximum agility in our companies. Europe will face two large Grey Swans: the first is financial, and the second political; they might, in addition, reinforce one another.

Grey Swan Analysis

December 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We have listed twelve Grey Swans which we see as, some of, the driving forces which will weaken the economic climate across Europe.

The financial world is a mess

September 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The above statement illustrates the dramatic situation in the financial markets where no one, no one at all, has any control. This is what we face daily in our strategic intelligence practices. We provide some insight as to why we cannot rely on the financial system, or on presidents, prime ministers, politicians or central bankers.

Brexit

September 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The 23rd June, 2016, is a historic date in the development of the EU: it is the day on which the British voted for Brexit. Our politicians still believe that all good things in the world come as a result of their actions. However, the economic reality is that our success in trade depends far more on fundamental factors such as ‘comparative advantage’, and whether we design and make things that others want to buy, than on politician’s bureaucratic schemes.

Do we believe the truth when we hear it?

August 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Do we really believe the truth when we hear it, even if it is not what we want to hear? That is strategic intelligence at its core: critical thinking, perspectives over and above facts, challenging assumptions, and determining the course of future action. On one occasion, I was presenting to one of the leading business groups in the Netherlands, and at the end, the CEO of a top-25 listed company asked us what kind of differentiating tools we use to determine the possible courses of future actions.

The EU is in slow-motion, but what about Silicon Wadi?

July 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

This statement demonstrates a potential problem. One example is that of the European Central Bank (ECB), with their new headquarters in Frankfurt, financed with even more debt in a financial world led by overconfidence and exuberance. The eurozone has been in a slow-motion crisis for some 7-8 and no one seems to be in charge: neither Draghi, Merkel, Tusk, Juncker or anyone else. The ECB doesn’t stand for anything but improvisation.

Quantitative Easing by the FED and ECB

December 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

A short story: “It is July 2015 on the shores of the Mediterranean. Times are tough, everyone is in debt and everyone lives on credit. Suddenly a rich tourist comes to town; he enters a hotel and puts a € 100 note on the reception counter to inspect some of the upstairs rooms for that evening. The hotel owner takes the € 100 note and runs to the butcher to pay his debt. The butcher takes the € 100 note and runs to the supplier of feed and fuel to pay his debt.

Trust never returns

December 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Trust in society is under huge pressure. We can see some extremely negative developments which are out of the control of our politicians, who unfortunately do not have the courage to take the necessary tough decisions.

The ventriloquists of the elite from the EU, IMF and ECB

April 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In April 2014, many TV and radio broadcasts and publications in the media informed us that Greece had recovered. We must admit that the elite of the EU, IMF and ECB put considerable effort in the media to mislead European citizens that the Greek economy was improving. Why do they take Greece as example?

The leverage ratio of banks is far too low

January 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We have reported on the continuous threats to banks, and have identified that these are not Black, but Grey Swans. Black swans are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events of massive consequence for which we hardly can prepare ourselves. Grey Swans, on the other hand, are events which have a very high impact, but one for which organizations are able to prepare themselves. Banking is such a huge Grey Swan. Why is this?