In the previous Intelligence Briefing, we discussed “Key Predictive Indicators” explaining the upcoming slowdown of the Chinese economy that might shock Western economies in 2018-2020. Sometimes banks also try to do this.Let’s take the example of Saxo Bank, which listed “Ten Outrageous Predictions for 2016”, which we could consider as potential Grey Swans.
Peter Diamandis founded the prestigious US Singularity University, active in research on new technologies and author of the bestseller “Abundance”. One of his visions is that technology developments do not just follow the linear curve of growth, but do, however, follow the curve exponentially. Many Boards underestimate the speed of technology change and when this happens exponentially the company loses ground. There are numerous examples where this occurs, the latest being Blackberry and Nokia.