BLACK SWANS – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

Do we believe the truth when we hear it?

August 1, 2016

Do we really believe the truth when we hear it, even if it is not what we want to hear? That is strategic intelligence at its core: critical thinking, perspectives over and above facts, challenging assumptions, and determining the course of future action. On one occasion, I was presenting to one of the leading business groups in the Netherlands, and at the end, the CEO of a top-25 listed company asked us what kind of differentiating tools we use to determine the possible courses of future actions.

Trust never returns

December 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Trust in society is under huge pressure. We can see some extremely negative developments which are out of the control of our politicians, who unfortunately do not have the courage to take the necessary tough decisions.

Antifragility

June 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Black swans are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events that have a massive consequence. Examples are a tsunami, huge storms like Sandy in 2012, 9/11, Madrid 2004, and the loss of MH17. Antifragility means randomness, uncertainty, dealing with the unknown, doing things without understanding them and doing them well. However, it is easier to find out if something is fragile.

Banks, business as usual

December 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Can you imagine that five years after the financial crisis, the financial system in Europe has still not yet improved? Banks still continue to package ‘risky financial products’ into special entities. Our bankers still behave the same as they did before the financial crisis. Why is this so? Bankers think they are better protected against the next financial crisis, because they have a higher percentage of equity on total assets. It’s business as usual all over again.

There are more postdictors than predictors

September 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

As a result of hindsight, people who did not see an event coming, (think for example of Black or Grey Swans), will manage to convince themselves that they predicted it, before proceeding to convince others. According to Taleb, after every event there will be many more postdictors than true predictors. Think about this statement: “Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast or recommendation. Just ask them what they have or don’t have in their portfolio”.

Black Swans and Grey Swans

May 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

“The more threatening externalities become for a company, the more there is a need to have strategic intelligence in place. Every company faces a continuous flow of threatening externalities”This statement is clear to everybody. But to foresee those threatening externalities, companies need to be able to monitor them in a timely fashion. A couple of years ago, I gave presentations about the “Management of Insights” and the “Management of Foresight” at the Dutch National Marketing Insights Event.