Intelligence Briefings – Page 9 – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

All Intelligence Briefings that have been published by Rodenberg Tillman & Associates can be found here.

Most managers ignore small changes

May 1, 2016

In the previous Intelligence Briefing, we discussed “Key Predictive Indicators” explaining the upcoming slowdown of the Chinese economy that might shock Western economies in 2018-2020. Sometimes banks also try to do this.Let’s take the example of Saxo Bank, which listed “Ten Outrageous Predictions for 2016”, which we could consider as potential Grey Swans.

Predictive Indicators – China

April 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In our daily strategic intelligence practices, we regularly list several Key Predictive Indicators (KPIs) to see what the near future might tell us. This is not forecasting. It is, however, based on delivering perspectives going beyond the brutal facts, by creating crucial foresight and early warning. Our governments, banks, the European Commission, national forecast institutes and our uncritical media tell us that we can expect economic growth. We don’t believe this! Our early warning analyses indicate the opposite.　

Top management doesn’t understand strategic intelligence

April 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

For decades, it has been difficult to climb the intelligence pyramid from data, information, and knowledge to intelligence towards courses of action. A second point is that most of us tend to stick to the short-term operational and tactical level, because most managers are not aware of the strategic direction of the company. Peter Drucker stated that strategy is the most difficult thing in business because it means making choices that differentiate us from the competition. A third aspect is that data and information management in most organizations is generally poor!! Why is this?

Everything can be digitized

March 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The digital revolution is underway with the biggest hotel chain Airbnb that doesn’t even own a single hotel room, and Uber, the biggest taxi-company that doesn’t even own a single car. The value-chain as we know it will change and be replaced by service-offering systems. This has already happened with the telecom, travel and music sectors. During the next 10 years some 70% of jobs will disappear!

Big Boys Big Ego’s and Strategic Intelligence (2)

March 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Narcissism is widespread at the top in both private and public companies as well as in non-profit organizations and the public sector. Narcissism is a necessary element for effective leadership, but it can, however, also become a negative trait. So we may therefore speak about positive and destructive narcissism. Examples to be emulated are Steve Jobs (Apple), Michael Eisner (Walt Disney), Jack Welch (GE), Ingvard Kamprad (IKEA), Henri Ford (Ford Motor Company), Freddie Heineken (Heineken) and Richard Branson (Virgin).

We live in a VUCA world

February 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

If you are dissatisfied with strategy-making based on information, backward-looking analysis, management controls and problem-solving after the event, but you would still like to make a positive contribution to thinking about the future, it is time for strategic intelligence.

Big Boys Big Ego’s and Strategic Intelligence

February 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In the fall of 2015, we published our book “Big Boys Big Egos and Strategic Intelligence”, the fifth book in a row on business-, competitive- and strategic intelligence since 2000. Scientific research on narcissism lies at the basis of this book, which is based on a sample of 950 CEOs of the S&P top-500 companies during the period 1992-2009.

Too often the Egos of CEOs are too Big

January 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In 2015, a high-technological corporation in the Netherlands, Royal Imtech, with some 22,000 employees, active in infrastructure, building & construction, maintenance & control, ran into financial trouble. The main causes of this bankruptcy were the inflated egos of the former CEO and CFO, who had both held positions from 2002 till February 2013, acting like ‘sun-kings’, and a lack of monitoring and control.

Ordinary and Dynamic Capabilities

January 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Many years ago, Michael Porter said that strategy is about making choices differently from your rivals. It is interesting to make the connection with Professor David Teece of the University of California at Berkeley, regarding ‘dynamic capabilities’, the internal company drivers of strategy that point towards competitive positioning. Teece draws a distinction between ordinary and dynamic capabilities. Ordinary capabilities are a set of learned processes and activities that enable a company to produce a particular outcome and are similar to best practices.

Quantitative Easing by the FED and ECB

December 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

A short story: “It is July 2015 on the shores of the Mediterranean. Times are tough, everyone is in debt and everyone lives on credit. Suddenly a rich tourist comes to town; he enters a hotel and puts a € 100 note on the reception counter to inspect some of the upstairs rooms for that evening. The hotel owner takes the € 100 note and runs to the butcher to pay his debt. The butcher takes the € 100 note and runs to the supplier of feed and fuel to pay his debt.