Intelligence Briefings – Page 5 – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

All Intelligence Briefings that have been published by Rodenberg Tillman & Associates can be found here.

Predictive Foresights, a basis for Success!

October 10, 2018

Intelligence Briefings, Predictive Foresights

We all know that the “holy grail” of forecasting is 50% or in fact “cross or coin”. No governmental institute or agency neither any multinational company is able to produce reliable forecasts. They have tried to do this for decades without being able to deliver trustworthy results. However, with the “Predictive Foresights” service it is possible to leverage the ‘holy grail’ of forecasting towards direction of future development of any kind with 75-85% accuracy. Furthermore the need for Big Data Storage & Analysis has become obsolete as the “Predictive Foresights” service only needs a tiny amount of data to effectively produce results in comparison.

Inward-looking versus outward-looking mechanisms

December 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The following four questions are the guiding principles in Peter Hinssen’s book “The Day after Tomorrow”. During the past five decades we have seen many similar publications. In essence, not much has changed within our companies, which are still guided by inward-looking control-mechanisms. This remains a key problem!

The five drivers of competitive readiness

December 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

the essence of strategy has not changed and will not change during the coming decade! It represents the common understanding regarding the ever-changing competitive environment, and what the company’s response is to that. It represents your promise to deliver value to your customers, both now and in the future, in a way that no other company can do, in a world of VUCA.

Managing the present versus managing the future

November 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Professor Jaap Koelewijn’s quote is telling, pointing out that a number of multinationals may be reaching the end of their company life-cycle. The financial press reports that an increasing number of hedge funds put heavy pressure on those boards of management to divest and/or to split up their companies to meet shareholder value. Management’s answer throughout 2017 has typically been to make ‘unrealistic’ promises that they will somehow succeed in meeting shareholder expectations. In addition, they took the easy and relatively straightforward way forward of cost-cutting and increasing consumer prices.

The phenomenon of hub firms

November 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Traditional companies spend much of their time monitoring start-ups. Likewise, the financial world does this by monitoring the fintech sector. Should we fear those start-ups or should we fear others? In his new book, “The Day after Tomorrow”, Peter Hinssen tells us that we should fear potential new competitors who will take over interactions with customers. The following eight companies: Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba, are the new ‘hub firms’ that will shape our collective future.

Black Swans, Grey Swans and Gray Rhinos

October 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Every manager in every company business function is part of a high-impact VUCA world: Volatility – Uncertainty – Complexity – Ambiguity. In this VUCA world, Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his famous book “The Black Swan” in 2007. Based on Taleb’s Black Swans, we have been using the phenomenon of Grey Swans with our unique Grey Swan Analysis. In the spring of 2016, Michele Wucker came out with her book “The Gray Rhino”, on the basis of which we added ‘Gray Rhino Analysis’ to our strategic intelligence practices.

Jeff Immelt’s lessons on leadership

October 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

It is interesting to see how Jeff Immelt created parts of his strategic intelligence picture. After Jack Welch’s period of leadership (from 1980 to 2001), Jeff Immelt transformed the 125-year-old GE into a start-up, a digital industrial company. “We compete in today’s world to solve tomorrow’s challenges”, he said, quoted in HBR September/October 2017.

Test your company’s strategy

September 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Most of us recognize this ‘annually recurring ritual’ in the company planning cycle which in most cases is based on an inside view. It becomes a breeding ground for all sorts of biases that subconsciously give more weight to facts that back management’s view than inconvenient ones that don’t. Being inwardly-focused and not anticipating competitors’ moves is remarkably superficial and is another breeding ground for competitive surprises. To overcome this, management is forced to think ‘strategically’ and needs evidence-based strategic intelligence.

Six reasons why managers have it often so wrong

September 1, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Biases are predispositions of a psychological, sociological and physiological nature that can influence decision-making. We may acknowledge their existence, and yet we often believe that we are not prone to bias; in itself this is a type of bias – ‘overconfidence’.

Defense and offense data, and crucial other dimensions

August 15, 2017

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The IT-world would like us to believe that Big Data is a success, with the emergence of all kind of data-management functions, data scientists, chief data officers and others. You might ask yourself how effective all of this is in the absence of a coherent strategy for organizing, governing, analyzing and deploying an organization’s information needs. The quote by the renowned author of the famous book “The Black Swan” is also clear in this regard. In the 2017 May/June issue of Harvard Business Review, Thomas Davenport draws a distinction between data defense and offense, and other crucial dimensions.