Intelligence Briefings – Page 12 – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

All Intelligence Briefings that have been published by Rodenberg Tillman & Associates can be found here.

Companies compete in arenas, not in sectors of industry

February 1, 2015

Management needs to get out of its defensive mode and must be open to intelligence and welcoming to news, even if it is bad news. Companies need different systems for managing their core business and for managing new opportunities. Industry analysis is part of the core business, while arena analysis deals with new opportunities.

Too many companies like the comfort zone when working on strategy

January 15, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Choosing a strategy entails making decisions that explicitly cut off possibilities and options. It is a natural reaction to make the challenge less daunting by turning it into a problem that can be solved with tried and tested tools. The strategic plan is supported with detailed spreadsheets that project costs and revenues quite far into the future. At the end of this strategy process everyone feels much less scared; so this is about coping with fear of the unknown.

The leverage ratio of banks is far too low

January 1, 2015

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

We have reported on the continuous threats to banks, and have identified that these are not Black, but Grey Swans. Black swans are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events of massive consequence for which we hardly can prepare ourselves. Grey Swans, on the other hand, are events which have a very high impact, but one for which organizations are able to prepare themselves. Banking is such a huge Grey Swan. Why is this?

Out-thinking competition

December 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

You will have the ability to out-think your rivals in the marketplace if your company is able to observe emerging trends before its competition does. A key challenge is to organize the early warning signs of critical changes.

Banks, business as usual

December 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Can you imagine that five years after the financial crisis, the financial system in Europe has still not yet improved? Banks still continue to package ‘risky financial products’ into special entities. Our bankers still behave the same as they did before the financial crisis. Why is this so? Bankers think they are better protected against the next financial crisis, because they have a higher percentage of equity on total assets. It’s business as usual all over again.

It’s an illusion that you are able to keep pace with all changes

November 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Peter Diamandis founded the prestigious US Singularity University, active in research on new technologies and author of the bestseller “Abundance”. One of his visions is that technology developments do not just follow the linear curve of growth, but do, however, follow the curve exponentially. Many Boards underestimate the speed of technology change and when this happens exponentially the company loses ground. There are numerous examples where this occurs, the latest being Blackberry and Nokia.

Banks: misplaced, misleading, and mistaken false arrogance

November 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In November 2013, Professor Admati was in Amsterdam presenting her book “The Bankers’ New Clothes” and speaking about the false lobby of the Dutch National Employer’s Organization VNO-NCW on Dutch banks. The professor sees herself as “a voice in the wilderness” because banks in the Netherlands and Europe want to keep to the 3% requirement of equity on total assets.

Most systems are down and we still accept it

October 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

How can these systems-based organizations survive, when inspiration, passion, enthusiasm, motivation have faded away a long time ago? These organizations now jump on ‘big data’, however, although big data can gradually improve our abilities as we work with it, it does not grant instant omniscience, and is not an automatic cornucopia or substitute for insight. We have a much more crucial phenomenon available to us these days, ‘open data’.

False decisions at Philips, Shell, ING Bank and DNB

October 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

One cannot do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and expect to be in business tomorrow! Do you want to learn new methods, new insights and foresight, new perspectives, and techniques, to get motivated, inspired and learn how to compete successfully in the future? Why is this of importance? The best ideas in the world are not in your head, your organization, or your industry: most come from looking around.

There are more postdictors than predictors

September 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

As a result of hindsight, people who did not see an event coming, (think for example of Black or Grey Swans), will manage to convince themselves that they predicted it, before proceeding to convince others. According to Taleb, after every event there will be many more postdictors than true predictors. Think about this statement: “Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast or recommendation. Just ask them what they have or don’t have in their portfolio”.