All Intelligence Briefings that have been published by Rodenberg Tillman & Associates can be found here.

Management suffers from three crucial biases

We are forced to establish beliefs about the world, our lives, the economy, investments, and our careers among others. We deal mostly in assumptions, and the more indistinct these are, the stronger the confirmation bias. The ‘confirmation bias’ is the mother of all misconceptions: It reflects our tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs and convictions.

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The drama of MH17

These are merely two among many other comments relating to the dramatic flight of MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. We can’t blame them, we can’t blame anyone, except those persons actually responsible for launching the missile on 17th July, 2014. But we can learn from this to overcome such dramatic events in the future!

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Antifragility

Black swans are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events that have a massive consequence. Examples are a tsunami, huge storms like Sandy in 2012, 9/11, Madrid 2004, and the loss of MH17. Antifragility means randomness, uncertainty, dealing with the unknown, doing things without understanding them and doing them well. However, it is easier to find out if something is fragile.

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The corpocracy of companies

The story starts every year with the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where the heads of the corporate world meet: CEOs, political friends and the consultancy-whisperers. They blame the politicians who are not able to solve the crisis, corporate management already has a focus on the future, and multinationals take the lead in solving the big future challenges: sustainability, growth and poverty.

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The EU has a supra-national structure

Dutch multinationals are facing strong competitors from outside the EU, who are confronted less with the difficult market circumstances prevailing in Europe. According to research by the Dutch Financial Times FD, this concerns multinationals such as AkzoNobel, Aegon, DSM, Wolters Kluwer, KPN, Heineken and Shell. Philips and Ahold are stuck in the middle, and Reed Elsevier and Randstad are the only outperformers.

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To win the strategic game

‘Strategic’ is one of the most misused words in management today and is often used to mean ‘important’. However, strategic decisions are about decisions with consequences of future impact for the organization. Compare this with M&A activity. Numerous research studies during the past 25 years have confirmed that 85 percent of all mergers and acquisitions fail.

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