A World View – Page 8 – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

This Intelligence Briefing is our twice monthly publication in which Rodenberg Tillman & Associates identifies and discusses worldly events triggered by possible Gray & Black Swans and/or Gray Rhinos.

The EU is in slow-motion, but what about Silicon Wadi?

July 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

This statement demonstrates a potential problem. One example is that of the European Central Bank (ECB), with their new headquarters in Frankfurt, financed with even more debt in a financial world led by overconfidence and exuberance. The eurozone has been in a slow-motion crisis for some 7-8 and no one seems to be in charge: neither Draghi, Merkel, Tusk, Juncker or anyone else. The ECB doesn’t stand for anything but improvisation.

Strategic Intelligence in Israel

July 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The above is one of the testimonials concerning our Master Class held in Tel Aviv, Israel, in 2016 with 45 business professionals attending from a wide variety of industry sectors. It was a real challenge for us to work with these Israeli professionals in what is seen as the “cradle of the most advanced intelligence practices in the world”. Our host was the Israel Export Institute.

Five ways to create forward-looking courses of action

June 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Companies have a tendency to compete on the basis of their core competencies rather than on the basis of those attributes that really distinguish them in the eyes of their customers. Core competencies seem to be a safe approach but are not the best route to business success. Your focus should be ‘outwards-in’ rather than ‘inwards-out’.

Six risk environments in our VUCA world

June 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Many firms still follow the traditional approaches to strategy that were designed for more stable times, emphasizing analysis and planning and focused on maximizing short-term performance rather than long-term robustness. In early 2016 Harvard Business Review published research dealing with 30,000 public US-companies over a time span of 50 years.

The best decisions are analysis-based

May 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Most management models lead unnecessary and enormous cost increases with a large chance of hugely disastrous decisions, because top managers are hardly ever corrected, according to Gary Hamel. We need decisions based on responsibility and not on company position. CEOs and boards of management show ‘Sun-King’ behavior with too much distance from the shop-floor, leading to wrong strategic decisions.

Most managers ignore small changes

May 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In the previous Intelligence Briefing, we discussed “Key Predictive Indicators” explaining the upcoming slowdown of the Chinese economy that might shock Western economies in 2018-2020. Sometimes banks also try to do this.Let’s take the example of Saxo Bank, which listed “Ten Outrageous Predictions for 2016”, which we could consider as potential Grey Swans.

Predictive Indicators – China

April 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In our daily strategic intelligence practices, we regularly list several Key Predictive Indicators (KPIs) to see what the near future might tell us. This is not forecasting. It is, however, based on delivering perspectives going beyond the brutal facts, by creating crucial foresight and early warning. Our governments, banks, the European Commission, national forecast institutes and our uncritical media tell us that we can expect economic growth. We don’t believe this! Our early warning analyses indicate the opposite.　

Top management doesn’t understand strategic intelligence

April 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

For decades, it has been difficult to climb the intelligence pyramid from data, information, and knowledge to intelligence towards courses of action. A second point is that most of us tend to stick to the short-term operational and tactical level, because most managers are not aware of the strategic direction of the company. Peter Drucker stated that strategy is the most difficult thing in business because it means making choices that differentiate us from the competition. A third aspect is that data and information management in most organizations is generally poor!! Why is this?

Everything can be digitized

March 15, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

The digital revolution is underway with the biggest hotel chain Airbnb that doesn’t even own a single hotel room, and Uber, the biggest taxi-company that doesn’t even own a single car. The value-chain as we know it will change and be replaced by service-offering systems. This has already happened with the telecom, travel and music sectors. During the next 10 years some 70% of jobs will disappear!

Big Boys Big Ego’s and Strategic Intelligence (2)

March 1, 2016

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Narcissism is widespread at the top in both private and public companies as well as in non-profit organizations and the public sector. Narcissism is a necessary element for effective leadership, but it can, however, also become a negative trait. So we may therefore speak about positive and destructive narcissism. Examples to be emulated are Steve Jobs (Apple), Michael Eisner (Walt Disney), Jack Welch (GE), Ingvard Kamprad (IKEA), Henri Ford (Ford Motor Company), Freddie Heineken (Heineken) and Richard Branson (Virgin).