A World View – Page 12 – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

This Intelligence Briefing is our twice monthly publication in which Rodenberg Tillman & Associates identifies and discusses worldly events triggered by possible Gray & Black Swans and/or Gray Rhinos.

It’s an illusion that you are able to keep pace with all changes

November 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Peter Diamandis founded the prestigious US Singularity University, active in research on new technologies and author of the bestseller “Abundance”. One of his visions is that technology developments do not just follow the linear curve of growth, but do, however, follow the curve exponentially. Many Boards underestimate the speed of technology change and when this happens exponentially the company loses ground. There are numerous examples where this occurs, the latest being Blackberry and Nokia.

Banks: misplaced, misleading, and mistaken false arrogance

November 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In November 2013, Professor Admati was in Amsterdam presenting her book “The Bankers’ New Clothes” and speaking about the false lobby of the Dutch National Employer’s Organization VNO-NCW on Dutch banks. The professor sees herself as “a voice in the wilderness” because banks in the Netherlands and Europe want to keep to the 3% requirement of equity on total assets.

Most systems are down and we still accept it

October 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

How can these systems-based organizations survive, when inspiration, passion, enthusiasm, motivation have faded away a long time ago? These organizations now jump on ‘big data’, however, although big data can gradually improve our abilities as we work with it, it does not grant instant omniscience, and is not an automatic cornucopia or substitute for insight. We have a much more crucial phenomenon available to us these days, ‘open data’.

False decisions at Philips, Shell, ING Bank and DNB

October 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

One cannot do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and expect to be in business tomorrow! Do you want to learn new methods, new insights and foresight, new perspectives, and techniques, to get motivated, inspired and learn how to compete successfully in the future? Why is this of importance? The best ideas in the world are not in your head, your organization, or your industry: most come from looking around.

There are more postdictors than predictors

September 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

As a result of hindsight, people who did not see an event coming, (think for example of Black or Grey Swans), will manage to convince themselves that they predicted it, before proceeding to convince others. According to Taleb, after every event there will be many more postdictors than true predictors. Think about this statement: “Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast or recommendation. Just ask them what they have or don’t have in their portfolio”.

This won’t happen to us!

September 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

“If generals can’t do without good intelligence, why do CEOs think they can?”This statement is one of my favorites. Be aware that the vast majority of companies do not have a strategic intelligence capability in place. Almost every company may be surprised by changing market conditions and disruption.

The competitiveness of nations

August 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Nations and enterprises are in the business of managing a set of competencies and skills to achieve prosperity for the one and profit for the other. The Yearbook currently covers 63 countries and is based on 340 criteria grouped into four competitiveness factors: economic performance, government and business efficiency, and infrastructure.

How to lead the organization through the dynamics of disruption?

August 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

In the previous post “How do we manage disruption?” we described how Nokia’s market position in 2010 was compared with a blazing oil platform leaving employees the choice of either jumping into the water even it was 100 meters deep and freezing cold, or staying on the rig and getting burned. In 1996, Intel’s Andy Grove of Intel published “Only the Paranoid Survive”.

How do we manage disruption?

July 15, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

How do we manage disruption? Or more importantly, how do we recognize its dynamics, anticipate its likely effects, develop and manage responses and sustain the necessary changes? Disruption can come in any number of forms. These include shifts in the dynamics of competitive advantage, technological breakthroughs, shifts in cost structure, new rivals entering markets from converging sectors, regulatory upheavals, economic downturns, idiosyncratic geopolitical and natural events, unforeseen internal company events, deregulation, re-regulation, and political turbulence.

Analysis is a precondition for creating Strategic Intelligence

July 1, 2014

Joseph Rodenberg

A World View, Intelligence Briefings

Most decision-making in our organizations is still based on intuition and gut feeling. The aim of strategic competitive intelligence is critical thinking fueled by analysis and driven by perspectives over and above facts.Analysis is key and is a precondition for creating strategic intelligence. In analyzing data, we tend to discern patterns early, jump to conclusions, ignore contradictory information or take other mental shortcuts.