MARCH 2017 / NO. 2
TAGS: INFORMATION, CNN, TRUMP

The credibility and reliability of information

“Experts speak in two different ways: firstly, by evaluating and combining facts and evidence, and based on this, drawing their conclusions, and secondly by just giving their opinion”
Increasingly, ‘experts’ limit themselves by just giving their opinion. We saw this happening when CNN broadcast their opinion about Trump and his connections with Russia two hours before the press conference at 5 pm on Wednesday 11th January, 2017. CNN’s ‘breaking news’ resulted in complete chaos. When this happens we always ask ourselves three questions: is this ‘cherry-picking’, resulting from selecting only the data which fits in a particular hypothesis? (1), is it ‘selective windowing’ meaning the simple creation of headlines in the media? (2), or is it a case of ‘counter-knowledge’ meaning incorrect information packaged as fact? (3).
In our strategic intelligence best practices, we always analyze the credibility of information and the reliability of sources on a scale of 1-6. We will explain this:
  • Credibility of Information: information which is confirmed by other sources (=1), probably true (=2), possibly true (=3), doubtful (=4), improbable (=5), or, the truth cannot be judged (=6)
  • Reliability of Sources: completely reliable (=1), usually reliable (=2), fairly reliable (=3), not usually reliable (=4), unreliable (=5), or, the reliability cannot be judged (=6)
The next step is to plot the results on a probability scale which varies from near certainty (8), through very likely (7), probably (6), evenly balanced (5), chance (4), unlikely (3), and very unlikely (2), to remote (1). We have been active in strategic intelligence as an independent consultancy firm since 1985, and we cannot conceive of delivering intelligence without some control of the credibility and reliability regarding the credibility of the information and reliability of the information sources that we utilize.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”, Mark Twain
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