July 2019 / NO. 1

TAGS: CYCLES INTELLIGENCE, STRATEGY, STRATEGIC, COMPETITIVE, INTELLIGENCE, SOLUTIONS, PORTERS FIVE FORCES, WHERE-TO-PLAY, WHERE-TO-WIN, SWEET SPOT ANALYSIS, FOUR CORNERS ANALYSIS, EXTRAPOLATION, SWOTI, MANAGERS, TOOLS, INTELLIGENCE CONTINUUM, CRUDE OIL, OPEC, DECEPTIVE PRACTICES, A.I., BIG DATA, PREDICTIVE, FORESIGHTS
SECTOR: STRATEGY

THIS ARTICLE IS FEATURED ON SCIP: https://www.scip.org/page/Cycles_Intelligence_Solutions

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How Cycles Intelligence Can Transform Your Organization’s Strategy

In this article: Our author argues for a totally new way of looking at strategic planning and competitive intelligence, using Cycles Intelligence.

“The transition from cause to effect, from event to event, is often carried on by secret steps, which our foresight cannot divine, and our sagacity is unable to trace.” – Joseph Addison

“We can predict the present without having to know everything about the past.” – John D. Barrow

 

For over 30 years, we haven’t seen many new tools or techniques within the area of strategy and competitive intelligence. We still speak of Porter’s Five Forces, Where-to-Play and How-to-Win, Strategic Sweet Spot Analysis, Strategy Under Uncertainty, Porter’s Four Corners Analysis, Extrapolation, Key Success Factor Analysis, Scenario Planning & Analysis and SWOTI. Indeed, most managers, professionals, and leaders are familiar with these tools and techniques. In this article I argue for a totally new way of looking at strategic planning and competitive intelligence, and how I was able to implement this at our company

A new Intelligence Discipline

As a Strategic Competitive Intelligence (SCI) professional, you’ve learned that the general objective of intelligence is:

 

“Delivering the right intelligence, for the right purpose, in the right format, to the right person, in the right place, at the right time” 

The SIX W’s: WHAT – WHY – HOW – WHO – WHERE – WHEN

 

Together with the different layers of intelligence gathering, as shown in our Intelligence Continuum below, you have all possible avenues covered; a holistic view, so to speak. So we thought! What most intelligence professionals have not realized until recently is that everything is connected in one way or another and often more deeply than expected. The depth of it is so complex that a total new intelligence layer can be added to our Intelligence Continuum. I call this layer “Cycles Intelligence“. This new layer is at the base of each Intelligence Continuum layer, and connects all of these directly.

For example, let’s say that you’d like to predict demand for crude oil over the coming years, along with scenarios when certain predetermined future events occur. As a SCI professional, you get to work, analyzing the influential and relevant people, organizations and the production limitations OPEC has implemented in the past, and try to put all of this knowledge in a solid prediction. However, using a traditional methodology you’re ignoring deep multidisciplinary connections based on cycles. The underlying foundation in the form of cycles has already influenced, in a high degree, what each of these will do at any given time. Knowing in detail the influence of these cycles will allow you to create more accurate predictions and better scenarios over time. Cycles Intelligence is crucial to increase one’s holistic understanding and prediction accuracy. Put simply, Cycles Intelligence should be part of any intelligence professional’s toolbox.

So what are Cycles?

Cycles may be defined as “Rhythmically Non-Chance Events“, a phenomena repeating at fairly regular intervals. Edward Dewey of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles showed that EVERY FIELD STUDIED has been found to have cycles. While the cause of cycles isn’t always clear, we can argue that there are underlying forces that serve to maintain the equilibrium of a given system. This applies equally to the motion of a pendulum, the orbiting of planets and the state of the economy, since it doesn’t matter whether the system and the restoring force is physical or not. Ray Tomes states it nicely:

 

“Because everything in the universe affects everything else, all vibrations, oscillations and disturbances reverberate about forever, continuously interacting. The wave nature of the universe is attested to by all modern scientific theories and the study of cycles is a wonderful way to study how influences move from one place to another, one time to another and one field of study to another. This can be done because cycles have many specific periods present that can be recognised, like fingerprints, when they appear somewhere else.”

 

Many financial traders and investment bankers have used this knowledge to boost portfolio profitability, since at least the 1930’s. However, they’ve kept this mostly to themselves, confirming that knowledge is power. More likely than not, this is the first time you’ve been exposed to this “Cycles” phenomenon. There have been a few notable people who have made amazing discoveries in this field of study; most have worked in universities and governments. Edward Dewey and David Perales, who both led FSC, are especially notable. Working in the 1930’s with a team of 500 researchers and academics (PRESIDENT’S RESEARCH COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL TRENDS), FSC founder Dewey discovered a mathematical code to identify cycles. They also discovered a planetary signal, through calculating our planet’s influence on other celestial bodies. In other words, a knowledge of cycles enables one to identify these “hidden“ influences in all aspects of our environment and daily interactions.

Cycles driven Strategic Intelligence – A case study on the Future of Crime

Starting to learn about cycles and applying this knowledge for yourself is not for the fainthearted. To illustrate how it might work, we’ve provided a brief case study. Each year, law enforcement agencies around the world invest billions to better predict future crimes, including investments into AI-driven platforms and resources for identifying threats. If they had access to cycle knowledge, such heavy investments into AI might not be necessary, since crime has cycles to an extent far greater than law enforcement agencies currently understand (read my previous article called “Meteorologist can predict Rape as well as Hurricanes“ for more on this subject).

 

“Where crime is taught from early years, it becomes a part of nature. Or is Nature the teacher of crime?”

– Adapted from Ovid

 

How might knowledge of cycles help law enforcement in the City of Chicago? Can we find any Predictive Cycles or Rhythmically Non-Chance Events on deceptive practices in Chicago? Yes we can, and it’s based on open source data made available by the Chicago through its DATA PORTAL.

Using this tool, I was able to identify certain Predictive Cycles, and have created a synthesis below of how the different cycles influence each other, called “Predicted Foresights“. The Predictive Foresight line (Red) gives future prediction one month ahead for deceptive practices, and the Real-time Value line (Blue) shows the daily deceptive practices rate recorded by the Chicago Police. Keep in mind; it’s the turning point and direction that we’re looking for, not the amplitude or height.

 

During the next few weeks, the deceptive practices rate will follow the prediction with a minimum of 65% + precision with the Predictive Foresight line. Hopefully, this case example illustrates how a Cycles Intelligence layer can revolutionize our strategic planning and competitive intelligence needs. It provides new insights in our understanding of our business environment. Perhaps most notably, predictive foresight doesn’t require Big Data, AI or heavy investments.  It only needs some simple data to successfully identify the relevant cycles that influence your company, sales, production, manufacturing, competitors, R&D, and technology.

 

 

“Business, more than any other occupation, is a continual dealing with the future; it is a continual calculation, an instinctive exercise in foresight.” – Henry R. Luce

 

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