JULY 2015 / NO. 2
TAGS: PAUL van RIEL, FUGRO, WHERE-TO-PLAY, HOW-TO-WIN

We didn’t see it

“We didn’t foresee the fall in investment in our industrial sector”
This statement by Paul van Riel, CEO of Fugro, in the Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad on 30th October, 2014. Fugro is the world’s largest integrator of geotechnical survey, subsea and geosciences services. The company is 70-80 percent dependent on what is going on in the oil and gas sector. In September 2013, Fugro launched its new “Growth through Leadership” strategy aimed at an annual growth of 10 percent in the next couple of years. In the spring of 2014, the first warnings were issued regarding under-performance and pressure on profitability.

Difficult to imagine

In November 2014, just two months after Fugro’s new strategy launch, French Total decreased its investment plans and other major key players in the sector followed suit. How is it possible that they didn’t foresee this basic change? Fugro’s new strategy was apparently not based on strategic intelligence, deepening the insights and foresight of their sector of industry and beyond, towards the complete dynamics regarding the future competitive landscape. It is clear that Fugro did not have an early warning system in place.
In developing a strategy there are two directions: strategy as a resource-allocation process laced with pride, or strategy as insight and foresight generation. In the first, the process of resource allocation is in most cases politically protected by senior management, and is not what is most valuable for the company. You might see this as strategy development within one’s comfort zone with a focus on costs. However, strategy development driven by strategic intelligence is always outside one’s comfort zone: it is based on revenues not costs, your beliefs about your customers, beyond the limited scope of analysis of the sector of industry towards getting the insights and foresight for the future competitive landscape, and fine-tuning your own capabilities which give the necessary answers during strategy development: ‘Where-to-Play’ and ‘How-to-Win’.

Strategic intelligence and strategy tools for the years ahead

To create the real insights and foresight in the future-driven competitive landscape consider the following strategic intelligence and strategy tools: scenario planning and analysis, strategic war-mapping for future courses of action, strategy under uncertainty, strategy as active waiting, where-to-play/how-to-win and early warning as result of 24/7 active monitoring. These tools can be used in combination, aiming to achieve maximum results. These tools allow you to start with strategy development outside your comfort zone, and this is how you can get to the heart of strategic intelligence.
“The more highly-paid the directors who you put on your board, the more handsomely they are likely to reward you”, Freek Vermeulen
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