NOVEMBER 2014 / NO. 2
TAGS: CHANGES, ILLUSION, PETER DIAMANDIS, ABUNDANCE, BLACKBERRY, NOKIA, ENVIRONMENT, LINEAR GROWTH, EXPONENTIAL GROWTH, EMPLOYEES, GOOGLE, AMAZON, APPLE, SAMSUNG, IBM, TOP-500 FORTUNE COMPANIES, US, FORTIS BANK, CORPORATE EXPRESS, ROYAL HOOGOVENS, GETRONICS, HAGEMEYER, NUMICO, NEDLLOYD, VEDIOR, VNU, STORK, DRAKA, CRUCELL, ROYAL WAVIN, MARTINAIR, ESSENT, NUON, DOUWE EGBERTS, SNS BANK, ABNAMRO, ING, RABOBANK, AIR FRANCE-KLM

It’s an illusion that you are able to keep pace with all changes

“Companies must become much more alert, otherwise they will lose out. Firstly, you have to disrupt your own business model. Secondly, if you are dependent on innovation within your own company, you are dead”, Peter Diamandis
Peter Diamandis founded the prestigious US Singularity University, active in research on new technologies and author of the bestseller “Abundance”. One of his visions is that technology developments do not just follow the linear curve of growth, but do, however, follow the curve exponentially. Many Boards underestimate the speed of technology change and when this happens exponentially the company loses ground. There are numerous examples where this occurs, the latest being Blackberry and Nokia.
This is why so many companies are surprised by the dynamic changes taking place in their business environment.

Linear versus exponential growth is an illusion.

The problem is that people think linearly, so management has to watch what is really happening and what will happen in their business environment much more carefully. It is an illusion that a company’s employees are able to keep pace with all changes. Even successful companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, Samsung, IBM and others cannot keep pace and have created the insight that there are always more smart people outside than inside their companies.
40% of the Top-500 Fortune companies will be gone in 2021:
Companies have to monitor what is going on at the periphery of their industrial sectors, since this is where you can expect disruption. Flexibility and maneuverability are the preconditions to survival. The average life span of Top-500 Fortune companies has decreased from 67 years in 1920 to 15 years in 2012, according to Yale University. The US-based Olin Business School conducted research in 2011 that showed that at the current rate of technology change, 40% of the Top-500 Fortune companies will have disappeared by 2021.

Is this relevant in the Netherlands? Please wake up!

We often hear the argument that many companies that haven’t been able to keep pace are ‘merely’ foreign companies. But please just wake up! Since 2000, the following Dutch multinationals have disappeared: Fortis Bank, Corporate Express, Royal Hoogovens, Getronics, Hagemeyer, Numico, Nedlloyd, Vedior, VNU, Stork, Draka, Crucell, Royal Wavin, Martinair, Essent, Nuon, and Douwe Egberts. Both SNS Bank and ABNAmro became state-owned, ING and Rabo Bank faced huge problems, and KLM Airlines generates profits for Air France, and has been doing so for many years.
“It’s an illusion that employees of a company are able to keep pace with all changes”, Peter Diamandis
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