JULY 2014 / NO. 1
TAGS: ANALYSIS, DECISION-MAKING, CRITICAL THINKING, WHY?

Analysis is a precondition for creating Strategic Intelligence

“A new idea comes suddenly and in a rather intuitive way. But intuition is nothing but the outcome of earlier intellectual experience”, Albert Einstein
Most decision-making in our organizations is still based on intuition and gut feeling. The aim of strategic competitive intelligence is critical thinking fueled by analysis and driven by perspectives over and above facts.
Analysis is key and is a precondition for creating strategic intelligence. In analyzing data, we tend to discern patterns early, jump to conclusions, ignore contradictory information or take other mental shortcuts. A good strategic intelligence professional knows intuitively, however, that there is always more than one credible potential future. Solid estimative analysis can provide these potential future trajectories.
In strategic intelligence we use four types of analytic spectrum:
  1. Descriptive analysis: this includes arguments that are data-driven, reactive to events and give answers to the Who? What? When? Where? and How?
  2. Explanatory analysis: this includes arguments that are slightly less reactive and identify the relationships between facts-events-observables-trends, giving answers to the Why?
  3. Evaluative analysis: this includes arguments with the intent of assessing or establishing the meaning or implications of making judgments!
  4. Estimative analysis: here the answers are given on what may happen next by giving the forecasts, foresight and future potential scenarios.
Two important characteristics of good estimative analysis are the capability to bound future trajectories and inform management of circumstances about which they don’t need to be concerned. So, the key to success for strategic intelligence analysis is to imagine and portray the range of realistic scenarios.
One could conclude that strategic intelligence analysis is not that easy. It is like the difference between a pre-mortem analysis and a postmortem investigation!
“The truth isn’t the truth until people believe you, and they can’t believe you if they don’t know what you are saying, and they can’t know what you are saying if they don’t listen to you, and they won’t listen to you if you are not interesting, and you won’t be interesting unless you say things imaginatively, originally, freshly”, William Bernbach
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